Interpreting Water Supply Forecast Charts
Typically, the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) has presented streamflow forecasts as a table format showing the five exceedance probabilities compared to the 30-year median (or average) as follows. The examples below show a comparison to the 30-year average, but the default central tendency is the median.
The Forecast Chart provides a visual alternative to the table. The forecast range is represented by a colored bar. Vertical lines on the bar signify the five forecast exceedances.
Below is an example. The numbers above the forecast bar are the five exceedance probability volumes in thousand acre-feet (KAF). Each exceedance forecast’s percent of average can be estimated by looking at the horizontal axis. The gray line centered above 100% on the horizontal axis represents the 1991-2020 historical average streamflow for the forecast period.
In the example, the entire forecast bar is shifted right of the gray line indicating a forecast for above average streamflow. The 50% exceedance is represented by the black line in the green portion of the colored bar. This represents a forecast volume of 420KAF which is ~185% of average. If drier than normal future conditions occur the 70% exceedance forecast may be more likely (375KAF or ~165% of average). If future conditions turn wetter than normal, the 30% exceedance forecast may be more likely (460KAF or ~205% of average). Water users are encouraged to consider the range of forecast exceedances instead of relying solely only on the 50% forecast.
