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Unofficial Daily Water Supply Forecasts - Nevada and Eastern Sierra

Daily Water Supply Forecast products are useful to track how recent weather events, such as wet or dry periods, change streamflow forecasts between official first of month and mid-month forecasts. Three graphical products are available below, as well as the output data in a spreadsheet.

The Daily Water Supply Forecast products should not be used as official NRCS forecasts. These are a completely automated set of products based on provisional SNOTEL snow water and precipitation data. These products do not consider climate information such as El Nino/La Nina, or monthly snow course data or a variety of other factors considered in the official forecasts.

The official forecasts, as well as their input data, undergo more rigorous human review before publication when compared to daily forecasts. The daily products are not meant to replace or supersede the official forecasts produced in coordination with the National Weather Service. Official first of month forecasts are displayed on these daily products for reference purposes. To learn more about these daily products please view this Daily Forecast Technical Note.

Due to low forecast skill early in season DWSF products are blank until late Nov / early Dec each year.

Example  Daily Exceedance Guidance Forecasts Graph  

Daily Exceedance Guidance Forecasts - displays five exceedance guidance forecasts (colored lines) versus historical range of variability (gray background) and the official monthly forecasts (yellow squares)

 

Example Daily Water Supply Forecast Skill Plot with 50% Exceedance Forecast  

Skill Plot with 50% Exceedance Forecast - displays 50% exceedance guidance volume forecast as percent of normal (blue line) with official forecasts (yellow squares) and guidance skill (r2) from calibration. Red line displays forecast skill and how it improves through the water year.

 

 

Example Daily Water Supply Forecast Scatter Plot  

Scatter Plot - displays scatter diagram of historical period (calibration) and observed volume forecasts in blue with most recent forecast shown in red.

 

 

 

Example Daily Water Supply Forecast Excel Output Data Image  

Excel Output Data - links to daily forecast output data for individual forecast points.

 

 

 

Review of streamflow forecasts vs. actual runoff for years listed: 2017 | 2016 | 2015

For Daily Water Supply Forecast products for other states: click here